Reducing harm by applying risk analysis to people: Why we’re different from developing technologies.

Not every risk is equal; deliberating on what level of risk is acceptable usually takes more time than taking the risk itself, with good reason: By identifying and understanding the risks your taking, you can avoid harming yourself or your environment. Developing yourself isn’t unlike developing technology. In the latter, strategies have been developed to deal with uncertainty, unknowns and ignorance. But can we apply those techniques toreal life?

The strategy of Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) aims to reduce the (human) cost of trial and error, by anticipating future developments and their impacts. When new knowledge is available, it integrated directly in the production process. In life, this is especially useful when choosing a study or profession. If you anticipate future developments in certain work fields, you might be able to steer clear of unemployment. Instead, choosing to specialise yourself in a new emerging industry might provide you with a stable income, providing you with more options of developing yourself. Choosing to specialise yourself in this manner means subjecting yourself to uncertainty. New developments have a very clear probability space, but the impact they have, or the probability new technology will emerge is unknown.  

We can also apply the ‘Precautionary Principle’ to the working situation. If you’re working at a firm and you’re observing trends that have the potential to threaten your position,

you should think about a Plan B, a strategy that will protect you ‘if disaster strikes’. ‘If’, because the impact or causality usually isn’t known. If it is known, you can make an informed decision on your career options, as it is no longer uncertain, but instead, it became a risk.

Risk evaluation isn’t just for the work environment, but can also be used in dating. When in doubt about asking out a handsome guy or pretty girl, usually you construct the ‘worst case scenario’. You might be rejected, which hurts your feelings of pride and/or love, but in the case the other person says yes, the ‘best case scenario’, your self-esteem and love is boosted. Using a scenario-matrix, based on two values, you can make a more informed decision about taking risks by determining if the worst-case scenario is acceptable, and if not, what its probability will be.

So far so good then, but we have forgotten about this important detail:  

As a student you learn the most, not from succeeding, but from making mistakes. People are more irrational than technology development, and some people, unlike technology, will only be improved if they get knocked down and get back up on their feet. Learning who you are starts by putting yourself in challenging environments, not in safe zones. Usually the risks have a very limited probability space (being you and your environment), whereas technologies often have a larger impact. Challenging developing (unfit or unfinished) technologies could introduce an unacceptable amount of risk.

People are like technology, both are always being changed and developed intrinsically. In this column, I have illustrated it could be useful to include principles in developing technology in our decision making. Risks and uncertainties have always been present, and always will be, and by making informed decisions, we can protect ourselves from harm. But protecting ourselves completely takes away opportunities for us to grow as people. Ironically, not knowing what’s coming next could provide us with the most information.