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1.3 The future sub-system

The current sub-system will be changed in 50 years. This paragraph illustrates this future socio-technological system starting from the the societal need or innovative technology.

1.3.1. Subgroups lifestyles 2065
In fifty years the socio-technical system will look quite different from the standard in 2015. The social system will evolve, due to both inside and outside influencing factors and new available knowledge. This knowledge will be a factor in the technical system as well, evolving and expanding the boundaries of all that is possible.

While the main target groups will stay the same as in 2015, the division of people amongst these groups will be drastically different. The planet group was quite small in the Texel of 2015, while the profit locals are the majority. This will change around, with all the fence-sitters, such as the innovative leader and the concerned partner from Van Hall’s model, as well as the laggards from Moore. Van Hall also described the traditional craftsman, and most of the leftover profit locals are those who identify with that particular mindset. The interactions and influencing power of all the different target groups have shifted quite a bit.

1.3.1.1 Planet Locals
Over the years of progress the planet locals have developed a lot, but the subgroups that existed in 2015 still remain the same:

- producer
- consumer

The planet locals are now by far the majority, and as thus they are capable of producing a wide variety of goods locally, either cheaper or at the same price as all imported goods. Most of the official businesses and organizations will have switched to locally and sustainably producing goods. This means that almost all of the foodstuffs and other goods people need during the week can be bought at these planet producers, and the fact that there is a sustainable option for almost everything helps people in achieving a sustainable lifestyle. For some of these goods, sustainability is in fact the only option, as the high costs of imported goods stops many retailers from shipping them. For this reason even those people stubbornly buying imported goods are occasionaly required to buy from the planet producers.

 

There is a small percentage of goods which simply cannot be produced on the island, such as certain spices, or other goods. This small number will still be bought from the profit producers by both the planet and profit consumers.

 

The planet producers also sell to the tourists, as they are in many cases both the most sustainable option, as well as the easiest and cheapest, making the planet producers attractive to all three subgroups of tourists.

 

1.3.1.2 Profit locals
There are still a few profit producers left, who have found a niche market in those few goods that simply can’t be produced locally. They import these, with added costs incorporated in the prices, and make money from the customers who have no local alternative. As the introduction states, there are still a few laggards and traditionalists, who do not hold with this sustainability ‘nonsense’. However, they still get a large amount of their groceries from these planet producers, as shipping costs has made mass production far more expensive.

 

1.3.1.3 Tourists
While this group may increase a little over the years, most of the change will be in the division in between the subgroups. In 2015, there was almost no eco-tourism. In 2065, when sustainability is a central aspect of the island, this type of tourist can be found on Texel in large numbers. The culture tourists still come to the same extent, because while the culture of the island has shifted towards sustainability, part of this is focusing on local productions, so these tourists appreciate this even more.

 

The number of leisure tourists has shrunk. As their main goal is to enjoy themselves, there are certain conditions to living on the island that might discourage them. There will be no major problems with food, while it is more sustainable now, there is still the same pricing and access as before. However, the facet of energy, for example, there are larger changes. The island has switched to renewable energy, and this requires more thoughtful use of energy and timing that the leisure tourist often does not want to bother with. These leisure tourists are not a target group Texel is still interested in, and their straggling numbers are more than compensated for by the increasing amount of eco tourists.

 

1.3.2 Conclusion
The beginning of the subchapter said the distribution of groups has changed towards more sustainability, and this is true to a certain effect. Overall many more people are more sustainable, and making conscious sustainable choices. Now these ‘green’ groups make up the majority of the inhabitants on the island. But there are a few cases and groups who simply are not capable or interested in changing their lifestyle. Yet even these people have become more sustainable over the years, though this was not because they choose differently, but because their options were controlled. In many cases there is simply no ‘unsustainable option’, as the lifestyle of sustainability has become the standard. In the end, this is what we strive for when we try to create sustained lifestyles.