Working on the topic of mobility I have come across several interesting papers on the development of transportation in the future. The visions created for 2030 and on show potential for impressively developed technologies, integrated in the transportation networks. Comparing these visions with the current situation, all over the world, the pictures do not match at all. Especially considering the economic crisis that influences the one country after the other and also the political conflicts happening at the moment, it is a bit hard for someone to predict such a bright future.
From the Automated Vehicles symposium, of 2014, it is estimated that by 2030 full automation, in cars, will have been achieved. This will mean a totally new reality in transportation. Car owning will belong to the past and a car-sharing system, centrally controlled and with many automations integrated, will replace it. This vision refers to the wealthiest countries. However, in the developing countries mobility will also be moving to this direction. At least this will be the intention, even if realistically thinking, for some places of the world it will remain a dream. The financial situation and the interest of people in using such technologies are supposed to define the speed of this new car-culture integration in the different countries.
There are multiple benefits created by this development for people and the environment (reduction in fossil fuels consumption, safer travelling etc.). In addition to this, the comfort standards are impressive, as travelling is transformed to a leisure activity. It is clear that the life quality standards will skyrocket at some parts of the world, like the northern part of the United states, Australia, Germany and many other of the European countries. But such a scenario will possibly not thrive in many others.
Thanks to the ambitious researchers, technological development exceeds our expectations every day. The motto ”What you can imagine you can also do” gains ground and sectors like medicine, electronics, automations present innovations every day. Stakeholders all around the world are willing to invest their money in the most economically beneficial innovations. The automated vehicles are one of them, as well designed, luxurious cars have always been used by their owners as way to demonstrate their “power”. Therefore, the experts are constantly trying to move a step further. The speed of all these developments does not run in parallel with the progress in the other sectors of the world societies, by means of societal matters/social inequality, worldwide peace, life standards etc.
My question is if this way of developing the world is actually sustainable. When at some parts, like India and its surroundings, no innovation will be available the harm for the environment will still exist), but United States will be in the place to host the most sustainable solution. To my eyes, an incentive for the development of every sustainable system is its economic attractiveness. The focus is mainly on making profit and on a second level on decreasing the environmental impact of transportation. To keep all the parts of the world alive, rich countries will have to invest in poorer ones, as a small pay back for what these countries have suffered. As we all know, underdevelopment is not a mistake they made, but the result of long term universal political and economy games. Moreover, a sustainable world can be achieved only if all the parts of it become healthy.
From my point of view, the main role of innovation and sustainability in new technology should be to heel the real problems that places all over the world suffer from and not to provide extra luxury. In other words, instead of enhancing an asymmetric model of world development, to combine technological developments with social innovations. To my eyes, this could lead to a more sustainable world future.
Volkswagen 2028 (video link):
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/07/08/volkswagen-releases-three-concepts-from-2028/
2014 Automated vehicles symposium:
https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AUVSI/3a47c2f1-97a8-4fb7-8a39-56cba0733145/UploadedFiles/AVS%202014%20Proceedings%20-%20Final%20%28Dec%202014%29.pdf